Latest UK General Election odds and analysis: Reform have potential to shake up 2024 poll

The UK general election is now less than three weeks away but it has already turned into a vastly different contest from the one that was envisaged when prime minister Rishi Sunak announced the July 4 date.

Parties from all sides have openly talked of a large Labour majority as being inevitable now and it is 1-16 that Keir Starmer's party will form the next government. However, the real story in the last week has been just how far the Conservative party might fall, with some polls suggesting that they could be reduced to fewer than 100 seats, having won 365 in the last general election in 2019.

Not only have some pollsters produced results showing the Liberal Democrats could become the official opposition by gaining more seats than the Tories, the Conservatives are also facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from relative newcomers Reform.

Sunak's party are still 1-3 favourites with Betfred to gain most seats in the market without Labour (from 2-7 a week ago), but the Lib Dems are just 3-1 (from 7-2) with Coral and Ladbrokes and as short as 9-4, while Reform are priced between 10-1 and 14-1.

Reform have been attracting a ton of media coverage since Nigel Farage took over as leader less than a fortnight ago. As Farage gleefully trumpeted on ITV's latest election debate, one poll has even shown Reform having more support than the Conservatives.

That led to each party saying a vote for the other is a vote for a bigger Labour majority and it will be fascinating to see how that battle shapes up. Bookmakers are betting on which party receives more votes, with the Conservatives 4-9 to receive more support and Reform a general 7-4.

Votes don't translate directly into seats in a first-past-the-post system, though, and despite the surge in interest, Reform are still expected to secure only a handful of seats at best.

The newcomers are still just 9-2 to win no seats at all, 5-4 for one or two seats, 6-1 for three or four, 9-1 for five or six and 100-30 with Coral and Ladbrokes for seven or more.

Reform's best chance of winning a seat is in Clacton, where Farage has chosen to stand and is 1-4 with bet365 to win. He has previously attempted to become an MP for Ukip seven times but never been elected. 

Other seats in which pollsters give them a chance of success in are Ashfield, although former Tory party deputy chairman Lee Anderson is 5-2 with Ladbrokes to win that seat, where Labour are 4-7, and Boston and Skegness, where party chairman Richard Tice is 6-4 and the Conservatives are 8-11 with bet365.

Reform came a close second in the Blackpool South by-election last month but are 16-1 third favourites with bet365 this time. Gainsborough and North West Norfolk have also been mentioned as Reform targets but they are 25-1 shots in both constituencies.

It's realistically too late for any kind of formal alliance between the Tories and Reform - although a poll has shown that almost half of the remaining Tory voters might support it - but it seems most likely that Farage's recent revival will just put him in a position to try to pick up the pieces of whatever is left of the Conservative party after the election.

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